2009-2010 Rut

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby NEW61375 » Thu Mar 12, 2009 6:03 am


You seem to know more about this than I do so I will not argue it with you but, I will say that where I hunt the rut seems to take place in the same time frame year after year. The weather just has an effect on weather it is pronounced or not. I have detailed notes going back 15 years on deer activity in my area and the first week of Nov. seems to always be seeking/chasing and the second week chasing/some breeding. Around the 18th the does and bucks are locked down and paired up.

With your theory how much of a variance could there be year to year?

Why are there variances from region to region if we all have the same moon?

Why don't people measure fetuses and either prove the moon theory right or wrong?

I think the variances have a lot to do with the herd, not all does will have the same cycle(think women)  and certainly the weather will have some impact.  But to answer your question about the new moon normally it is fairly close each year.  Last year however it was a little different because the first new moon after the Autumn equinox was at the end of Sept(29th) so that would have put the action somewhere between the last week of October and first week of November, which is close to what I saw but in all honesty it was really hot around Nov.10-12(here anyway).  With that being said this year is closer to waht we normally see with the first new moon in October.
Region to Region is a good question and one I don't have a good answer for.  One thing I never understood about that is region to region is supposed to be different but everyon always talks about hunting late October through mid November, is there really much difference?  I don't know.
The link posted earlier gives some of the problems with fetal measurements.  It seems like it could be useful but if you are dealing in accuracy of a 200 day cycle to within 5% that is still a 10 day variance.

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby Patriot » Thu Mar 12, 2009 10:06 am

I'm no expert on rut phases. 
Here is my simple theory for my hunting area:
Hunt (bow) as much as possible the week before gun season starts (Nov 7 start this year).  Once gun season starts, the hunting pressure will (in general) trend bucks nocturnal.
Paul K. "aim small, miss small"

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby gunther89 » Thu Mar 12, 2009 10:37 am

I just try and hunt as much as I can the last week in October and then the first 2 weeks in November with the bow.  I feel those are the 3 weeks when most of the rutting occurs and bucks will be on there feet the most.  The 3rd weekend is gun opener and normally by then most of the does are already bred.  In my 8 years of hunting I have only seen rutting activity once during the gun season and that was on thanksgiving morning.  My cousin 2 years ago had a hot doe around him opening day of gun season and had I think 5 bucks around him including a big 140+ 9 pointer.  

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby Goose » Thu Mar 12, 2009 1:29 pm

OHhunter thanks for the link, interesting.
New61375- thanks for the reply, I hope your theory works for you it sounds like you have put a lot of thought into it and I give you credit for that.
I just don't believe the moon is a way to plan hunts, I as the others have stated get out there every time I can but, from a different view I would not schedule vacation based on the moon theory, it's just to variable for me and nature IMO.
I think weather is the biggest player in the rut.
This past year was a good year for testing the moon theory because it was so late compared to the early Nov. set date theory.
Where I hunt and from the people I talked to the rut occurred as normal in the first part of Nov. not late as predicted.
I think this was good evidence for LLR and the others that believe it is occurring at the same time every year.

Genesis 27:3 Take your bow and quiver full of arrows out into the open country, and hunt some wild game.....

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby dtrain56 » Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:18 pm

the evidence just shows that most deer are bred the same time each year regardless of moon phase...

that doesn't mean that when it is a full moon the breeding isn't being done during the middle of the night....

also breeding takes place in the optimium time for fawn survivability...so the furthur north the earlyier the rut...this is a herd thing that i am sure that is not understood...

because if you take a doe from the north and place it in the south the breeding doesn't occur in november but rather the corret time for that area...

for sure their is much that is misunderstood or not explained by our best efforts...we are human not wild animials that have to adapt and survive under the elements of nature... 
with that said...then if you think moon phase helps and it gives you confidence to sit in a tree and hunt then by all means use what ever gets you out there...myself i have less confidence in moon phase and think that some deer activity has yet to be explained...
but i do know that nov 5-15 has been very good to me...and i will be out there again next season...during my magic time once again

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby shaman » Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:39 am

Read the attachment below.

I just wanted to let you know that using the Jake Meyer theory of prediction for the peak of last year's rut, I was able to successfully predict the  Deer Gitibility Factor (DGF) for SW Bracken County, KY.  Lo and behold, Jake confirmed that the maximum number of dead deer showed up at his place that Saturday morning.  As usual a significant number of them were bucks.

I have calculated the DGF for this year, by consulting the US Navy Ephemeris, the Farmer's Almanac, the squirrels, and most importantly the "Proposed 2009-2010 Hunting Season" published by the KDFWR.  It points to a DGF Maximum in a 12 hour period beginning on the morning of 14 November 2009, just a few minutes before 0650 EST.  I wish I could be more precise, but there is always somebody on the next ridge that starts shooting early.

Jake and I have decided to collaborate on a book, detailing our theories.  It will be available to folks in hardcover for $29.95.  You may wish to order advance copies from me, and I will cut you a substantial discount.  I'll make sure yours will be custom signed by Jake and me and also have a letter of authenticity. After they go on sale, there will be a display of them on the back shelf at Meyer's General Store in Lennoxburg.    I don't know if Jake is going to handle mailorder requests.

Jake and I  have found the book is still a little short for the hardcover edition, so we're currently adding a section on recipes, and "Charlie and the Opossum Berries."  I'm going to include my inspiring "Sermon to the Squirrels."  and we're going to fill the book with pictures of all our friends with their deer in an attempt to take up space and also give the misleading impression that somehow they were successful, because of Jake's Theory.   It also helps later, because some folks will buy the book, because they have their picture in it. That way we can hold off giving them a free copy for Christmas.  I'm also composing numerous sidebars like "Ten Things You Don't Want in Your Pack When Hunting Deer" and "What not to say to the Game Warden"

If you want your picture in our book, send us a $29.95 and snapshot of you with your deer and a brief explanation of how you got it on Opening Day and we'll work it in.  This is a don't miss book, so be sure to order extra copies to give as presents to your friends and family-- that's what Jake and I are doing. 

Image RE: Alsheimer or Rue? - 11/2/2008 6:45:13 AM    Image Image Image Image showPicture("11/2/2008 6:45:13 AM",0,0,0,7942,10)Image shaman
titleAndStar(483,0,false,false,"","")Super Member

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Status: online Image I've been sitting back here watching the pig rasslin'  and things are coming out crystal clear:   There is not enough of our anecdotal evidence to back up either author's assertions conclusively.

If Charlie said the sun came up just after the cock crowed, and Rue said the sun was coming up due to the dogs howling, we would probably be able to come to an agreement fairly soon.  Enough of us have seen the sun come up to know the real reason why they sun comes up.  Instead, the group seems fairly split.

I, personally, am in the camp that says:  yes, one of them will do nicely.  My authority on this is neither Charlie or Leonard. It's Jake.  Jake runs the processing operation at Myer's General Store in Lennoxburg, KY.  Jake will tell you:  the largest number of bucks start coming in shortly after sun-up on Opening Day of the KY Rifle Season, with a peak in the afternoon.  Scientifically backtracking and allowing for gutting, and transport that means,  if you want to bag a buck in our county, the best time to do it is before 0900  of Opening Day. My experience directly coincides with this. How that figures in to Rue's or Alsheimer's models is up to you. I suspect that if you check with your local processor or your local check station, you can get a similar response. 

Both Rue and Alsheimer will tell you that local conditions: weather, hunting pressure, etc. will influence their model significantly. Neither theory can be conclusively shown to be the sole controlling influence, at least not yet.  In either case, I doubt it will matter all that much.  Kentucky will still schedule its season  to cover the Rut.  Ohio will still schedule it's Shotgun Season between the November and December ruts. If you want to bow hunt the November rut, you are better off on one side of the Ohio River. If you want to hunt with a rifle, you're better off on the other-- local conditions prevail.

Just so you have it: the shaman predicts that the rut will peak in SW Bracken County, KY at 0650 EST on November 8, 2008. For positions east of Brooksville, you may see this peak a minute or so earlier.  The peak will last until 0900EST, when most guys get tired of reloading and start heading in. At 1000 EST there will be a second peak of activity, as the deer run for their lives from all the ATV traffic.  From 1000 EST until 1130 EST, smart hunters who stay on their stands will be able to take advantage of this second peak. The shaman advises all hunters to gut their deer as soon as possible and transport them out of the woods.  The line at Jakes can get long in the afternoon.  If you doubt my calculations, remember this:  dead deer don't rut.  At least it is hard to determine which phase of the rut a buck is experiencing when it is hanging from a meat pole.

Excuse me, I have to go get my rattle and start shaking-- my duty as the resident shaman here.  It's getting on towards dawn, and unless I get out there soon, I won't be able to get the sun to come up.  This is one deer hunter who KNOWS why the sun comes up.

< Message edited by shaman -- 11/2/2008 6:46:48 AM >


Genesis 9:2-4 Ministries of SW Bracken County, KY
Confessions of a Cervid Serial Killer
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(in reply to Gafrage) [/align]   Post #: 68 Image Image RE: Alsheimer or Rue? - 11/4/2008 9:19:50 AM    Image Image Image showPicture("11/4/2008 9:19:50 AM",0,0,0,7942,10)Image HUNT365
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Status: offline Image amen to that, i agree with the shaman. gut your deer and get it to the butcher asap. then stop at the bar and spend the rest of the day there deciding which moon phase you are in. stay away from the woods, cause thats where i'll be. [align=right]
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Genesis 9:2-4 Ministries of SW Bracken County, KY
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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby NEW61375 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 2:42 am

Just a theory fellas, nothing more.  I just feel there has to be a reason why something happens.  I happen to believe that extended periods of dark (not all moon phases, forget that part) trigger biological responses in deer.  That is fairly straight forward, even with the slight variances in the dates and times these conditions occur, they still happen at relatively the same time each year, within a few days usually(sometimes a bit longer) but close nonetheless. 

The rut itself is unpredictable at best, you can have one guy sit in a stand all day and not see squat and another guy see bucks bird dogging does all day just one zip code over.  You think their "Rut Reports" will look different?  I don't want to rely on info like that or a calendar produced for a generally northern rut.  I collect the data on the deer I hunt and the things my hunting group see every year and even though we've only been seriously doing that for 3 seasons it provides tons of useful insight on the deers movement/behavior patterns, we can then use the weather, moon, crop information to see any kind of repetitive trends.  Too much time on my hands?  Probably, it's definitely not an exact science but it's interesting to me. 

Some of us have to schedule off in advance, my Brother is coming in from Germany to bowhunt,  I told him Nov. 6-20 would be good.  Really those dates are good most any year it just so happens this year I am hoping that time frame will be even hotter(and the weather cooperates).  Good lord willing we will find out in about 7 months.[:D]

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby NEW61375 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:10 am

I was looing for the PDF version of the calendar for this year but couldn't find it(anyone know?) but I came acroos this article from this site:
Deer and Deer Hunting - When Will Bucks Go Wild?
Good read, the section titled "The Predictor's Basis" gives some info on how moon light or lack there of effects whitetail(not necessarily phase).

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby vipermann7 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:25 am

I've always been skeptical that the moon has that much effect on anything, but many experts claim it does, hunting and fishing a like. I'm not sure if anyone will ever come up with a hard definitive answer that can be 100% scientifically checked and backed and completely flawless. The variances found in individual animals along with the never ending list of other changing conditions will about make that impossible. For me and my hunting area, I have found the rut seems to follow the rutting moon timing that I read about in D&DH. This last two years made my mind up, being that the rutting moon was a solid 3 week difference, comparing 2008 to 2007. I hunt an area that seems completely dead of all deer activity until the rut hits good. For that reason, we didn't deer hunt that area for many years because we would go all early season and never see anything, so by november we would give up. Then one year I decided to stick it out and had about a week and a half of great action, but the rest of the season was still dead. Then I noticed this week of good action coincided with the rutting moon stuff I started reading about, so I stick to that now. I can't say I know it is the moon, or that it would work for every body in all situations. But for me and my little corner of the woods, it works good. That's really what it all comes down to, just getting out as much as you can until you find what works best. Like many of you said, if you hunt the end of october to the middle of november, in the north anyway, you will hit good rut activity year in and year out. That's good enough for me. Those that need more precise dating, like when planning vacations, it may pay to find something that gives you a closer date, and that method seems to vary from place to place. What we need to do is stop wasting our time figuring out this stuff and just figure out how to read a deer's mind, then we will have all the information we will ever need. That seems easy enough, why hasn't done that yet? [;)]

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RE: 2009-2010 Rut

Postby TRMichels » Thu Mar 31, 2011 3:12 pm

As the perosn who wrote the article dispelling the moon phase theory of Kroll & Koerth, Larouche and Jef Murray ( God rest his soul), I guess I should jump in here. First, in the Minnesota comception dates study, the researchers did mesure 1600+ fetuses over and 8 year period. What they found was that peak breed in all eight years occurred during the second week of November. But, when I checked the full moon dates with NOAA (Natl. Ocean. & Atmosphere Assoc.) for all of those years. I found that the first full moon after the fall equinox occured as early as the last week of October to the last week of November - showing no correlation with any moon phase (no matter which one) whatsoever. This completely negates any moon phase /peak breedign theory. Sorry to burst you bubble. Or shoot down your m oon.

Incidentally, this is the largest whitetail conception dates study ever done, and it was not done to undermine the moon phase /peak whitetal breeding hypothess (not 'theory". None of them are theories, because they cannot be proven). It was done befoer any of thsi nonsense ws even talekd about, they simply wanted to know when peak breeding occurred, so they couls scheduel the hunt during that tiem frame, so they coudl resuce the deer herd. Rally stupid huh, kill all the trophy class bucks ...

I was the first person to be able to say that science disproves this hypothesis. After that I contacted Karl Miller at the U of G, nd asked him to follow up on it (we've been corresponding since the early 90's, and before him with Larry Marchinton, his professor). His study added 900 more deer from 9-10 other states, from FL to MA, and MN to TX (almost all of the whitetail range). And he came to the same conclusion. Not matter how you look at it, the moon has absolutely nothing to do with peak breeding of whitetails

HOWEVER, that does not mean it has nothing to do with peak sightings of bucks chasing does, becaseu the full moon often coincides with the dates when deer are most active during dayligh hours, especially prior to the rut, which means you who are hunting actually see it, which makes you believe the moon hs somehting to do with breeding, when in fact it only has to do with peak monthly deer activity during daylight hours. People have just mis-interpreted what they see (which happens a lot with widlife observations) and what it really means.

After 12 year of whitetail research, adn 15 years of guiding experienced, if you have any questions on whitetal deer, turkey, elk, waterfowl or bear biology & behavior - feel free to ask me- I'm here to help.

Incidentally, I'm currently doing wild turkey, whitetail and ebar researh via 8 live feed, infra red (nighttime capable), full sound, telophoto lens cameras, on a large unfenced preserve in NE Arkansas. You can follow along with me as I learn more about the animals by logging on to www.USeeWildlife.com, it is FREE.

God bless,

T.R. Michels
Trinity Mountain Outdoors


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