Alsheimer or Rue?

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dmcianfa
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby dmcianfa » Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:19 am

I have three words and a secret to tell everyone about this topic:

"STATISTICS NEVER LIE"

Look at the numbers associated with each of the studies by both individuals.  Although C.A. has many more data points, or samples so to speak, you can still compare them to each other or both baselines.  Just look at the statistics from a mathematical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or the other, without "data driven facts" to back them up.  Data will always tell you whats going on in a process, unless you have "special causes" as we engineers know can be thrown in the mix.  Such as the suppressors that I explained earlier.  DATA is king not "what I've seen being in the woods two weekends out of the rutting month".  Start putting up the numbers in each study and stop talking about speculation on fawn birthing and what not!  This kind of talk without facts really grinds my gears sometimes.  Anyway, happy hunting! 
"I enjoy and become completely immersed in the challenge and the increased opportunity to become for a time a part of nature. Deer hunting is a classical exercise in freedom. It�s a return to fundamentals that I distinctly feel are basic and right"-F.B.

hunter480
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby hunter480 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:27 am

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa

I have three words and a secret to tell everyone about this topic:

"STATISTICS NEVER LIE"

Look at the numbers associated with each of the studies by both individuals.  Although C.A. has many more data points, or samples so to speak, you can still compare them to each other or both baselines.  Just look at the statistics from a mathematical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or the other, without "data driven facts" to back them up.  Data will always tell you whats going on in a process, unless you have "special causes" as we engineers know can be thrown in the mix.  Such as the suppressors that I explained earlier.  DATA is king not "what I've seen being in the woods two weekends out of the rutting month".  Start putting up the numbers in each study and stop talking about speculation on fawn birthing and what not!  This kind of talk without facts really grinds my gears sometimes.  Anyway, happy hunting! 

 
 
[8|][8|][8|][8|]

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JPH
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby JPH » Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:48 am

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa

I have three words and a secret to tell everyone about this topic:

"STATISTICS NEVER LIE"

Look at the numbers associated with each of the studies by both individuals.  Although C.A. has many more data points, or samples so to speak, you can still compare them to each other or both baselines.  Just look at the statistics from a mathematical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or the other, without "data driven facts" to back them up.  Data will always tell you whats going on in a process, unless you have "special causes" as we engineers know can be thrown in the mix.  Such as the suppressors that I explained earlier.  DATA is king not "what I've seen being in the woods two weekends out of the rutting month".  Start putting up the numbers in each study and stop talking about speculation on fawn birthing and what not!  This kind of talk without facts really grinds my gears sometimes.  Anyway, happy hunting! 

 
Wow am I glad you came along to save us from ourselves!
 
I thought D&DH was founded on the idea of the "Stumpsitters", or in other words, regular hunters who were willing to share their experiences. I did not know that I needed to have data points or pie-grafts in order to express an opinion on deer or deer hunting.
 
Anyway, sorry to grind your gears. [8|]
 

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dmcianfa
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby dmcianfa » Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:07 am

ORIGINAL: JPH

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa

I have three words and a secret to tell everyone about this topic:

"STATISTICS NEVER LIE"

Look at the numbers associated with each of the studies by both individuals.  Although C.A. has many more data points, or samples so to speak, you can still compare them to each other or both baselines.  Just look at the statistics from a mathematical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or the other, without "data driven facts" to back them up.  Data will always tell you whats going on in a process, unless you have "special causes" as we engineers know can be thrown in the mix.  Such as the suppressors that I explained earlier.  DATA is king not "what I've seen being in the woods two weekends out of the rutting month".  Start putting up the numbers in each study and stop talking about speculation on fawn birthing and what not!  This kind of talk without facts really grinds my gears sometimes.  Anyway, happy hunting! 


Wow am I glad you came along to save us from ourselves!

I thought D&DH was founded on the idea of the "Stumpsitters", or in other words, regular hunters who were willing to share their experiences. I did not know that I needed to have data points or pie-grafts in order to express an opinion on deer or deer hunting.

Anyway, sorry to grind your gears. [8|]


JPH,
sorry if I upset you.[;)]
 
I just get sick of people bantering back and forth like children about how each other's father can beat up the other.  Somebody get the facts (data from articles) and list them, that will tell the whole story, plain and simple is all.  Don't you agree?  I have no quarrels with anyone willing to share an experience, maybe I was a little harsh, but just because joe blow saw a fawn on so and so date doesn't make it golden rule!  All i'm saying is every natural object has a normal distribution in its process, find that normal distribution, whether that be affected by lunar or solar or whatever, and show that it correlates, with proven data and whalla!!!!!  Your theory is substantiated and validated.  And no, you don't need data points to reflect your opinion, but when you try to will that opinion onto others, then you better back that *%#$ up.  That's all I'm saying.
"I enjoy and become completely immersed in the challenge and the increased opportunity to become for a time a part of nature. Deer hunting is a classical exercise in freedom. It�s a return to fundamentals that I distinctly feel are basic and right"-F.B.

hunter480
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby hunter480 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:56 am

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa

ORIGINAL: JPH

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa

I have three words and a secret to tell everyone about this topic:

"STATISTICS NEVER LIE"

Look at the numbers associated with each of the studies by both individuals.  Although C.A. has many more data points, or samples so to speak, you can still compare them to each other or both baselines.  Just look at the statistics from a mathematical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or the other, without "data driven facts" to back them up.  Data will always tell you whats going on in a process, unless you have "special causes" as we engineers know can be thrown in the mix.  Such as the suppressors that I explained earlier.  DATA is king not "what I've seen being in the woods two weekends out of the rutting month".  Start putting up the numbers in each study and stop talking about speculation on fawn birthing and what not!  This kind of talk without facts really grinds my gears sometimes.  Anyway, happy hunting! 


Wow am I glad you came along to save us from ourselves!

I thought D&DH was founded on the idea of the "Stumpsitters", or in other words, regular hunters who were willing to share their experiences. I did not know that I needed to have data points or pie-grafts in order to express an opinion on deer or deer hunting.

Anyway, sorry to grind your gears. [8|]


JPH,
sorry if I upset you.[;)]

I just get sick of people bantering back and forth like children about how each other's father can beat up the other.  Somebody get the facts (data from articles) and list them, that will tell the whole story, plain and simple is all.  Don't you agree?  I have no quarrels with anyone willing to share an experience, maybe I was a little harsh, but just because joe blow saw a fawn on so and so date doesn't make it golden rule!  All i'm saying is every natural object has a normal distribution in its process, find that normal distribution, whether that be affected by lunar or solar or whatever, and show that it correlates, with proven data and whalla!!!!!  Your theory is substantiated and validated.  And no, you don't need data points to reflect your opinion, but when you try to will that opinion onto others, then you better back that *%#$ up.  That's all I'm saying.

 
Two things here.....
 
First, facts, statistics and data can all be skewed in the way they`re presented to make whatever point the presenter desires. Pretty simple concept, been going on for eons.....
 
Second, what exactly IS fact in regards to rutting activity. Especially when two such noted people such as Alsheimer and LLR differ on the subject. Obviously, there is much hypothesis and speculation, and not a lot of "fact". So we`re left mostly with what we saw 'During our two weeks" of the month long rut. Which, by the way, rutting activity goes on for at least 3 months.
 
I can appreciate your engineer`s penchant for facts and data, but the reality is, in deer hunting, and in particular, concerning the rut, there just isn`t much of what we could call facts, available.

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JPH
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby JPH » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:28 pm

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa
JPH,
sorry if I upset you.[;)]

I just get sick of people bantering back and forth like children about how each other's father can beat up the other.  Somebody get the facts (data from articles) and list them, that will tell the whole story, plain and simple is all.  Don't you agree?  I have no quarrels with anyone willing to share an experience, maybe I was a little harsh, but just because joe blow saw a fawn on so and so date doesn't make it golden rule!  All i'm saying is every natural object has a normal distribution in its process, find that normal distribution, whether that be affected by lunar or solar or whatever, and show that it correlates, with proven data and whalla!!!!!  Your theory is substantiated and validated.  And no, you don't need data points to reflect your opinion, but when you try to will that opinion onto others, then you better back that *%#$ up.  That's all I'm saying.

 
Not shure where to start here.
 
I guess my first question is, who is trying to "will their opinion on others"? I saw this thread as an open discussion about two great deer researchers and our opinions of their work.
 
I would go on further to suggest that since the thread is in refrence to CA and LLR, the data that they have listed in their D&DH articles would be implied. I do not think it would be valuable for all of us to dig out our old issues and cite work that everyone is already familliar with.
 
IMO, your background as an Engineer is of little value when dealing with this topic. We are talking about wild animals here, not lifeless points of data. Intuition, experience and observation are each of equal or greater weight.
 
And lastly, don't talk down to people, at least not after 8 posts. Many of us have spent considerable time sharing ideas and opinions here. For example, Hunter480 and I disagree strongly on many topics, but we have a mutual respect. That is a respect that you have not earned.
 
And while we're at it. My Dad is in poor health, but in his day he could take your Dad!

schlupis
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby schlupis » Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:50 pm

JPH the last line is pricless but I hope your dad gets better soon dont know whats wrong with him but I will say a prayer for him.

Squirrelhawker
 
Posts: 413
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby Squirrelhawker » Fri Sep 26, 2008 3:26 am

ORIGINAL: dmcianfa

I have three words and a secret to tell everyone about this topic:

"STATISTICS NEVER LIE"

Look at the numbers associated with each of the studies by both individuals.  Although C.A. has many more data points, or samples so to speak, you can still compare them to each other or both baselines.  Just look at the statistics from a mathematical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or the other, without "data driven facts" to back them up.  Data will always tell you whats going on in a process, unless you have "special causes" as we engineers know can be thrown in the mix.  Such as the suppressors that I explained earlier.  DATA is king not "what I've seen being in the woods two weekends out of the rutting month".  Start putting up the numbers in each study and stop talking about speculation on fawn birthing and what not!  This kind of talk without facts really grinds my gears sometimes.  Anyway, happy hunting! 

 
I almost never respond to posts like this unless I'm personally involved, but dude, you just intellectually unzipped your fly in front of a whole bunch of people who obviously know way more about this topic than you realize.
 
"Just look at the statistics from a mathmatical standpoint and use that instead of coming up with hair brain ideas on why you think its one way or another"
 
How old are you? I'm trying not to turn this into a personal attack but this is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen posted. We're   not trying to come up with anything. We were discussing the research and our respective opinions of, two giants in the world of deer hunting and deer research. The "speculation" of fawn birthing that you're referring to, happens to be an integral part of one of the aformentioned experts research. Or, did you miss that part? Now I know us deer hunters are not as smart as you engineer types, but from my short tenure here, I've noticed that most of us are managing to read the posts and actually comprehend what is being talked about.
Sheesh[8|]

Squirrelhawker
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby Squirrelhawker » Fri Sep 26, 2008 3:33 am

Oh, and I almost forgot.... Happy Hunting!

NEW61375
 
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RE: Alsheimer or Rue?

Postby NEW61375 » Fri Sep 26, 2008 8:32 am

ORIGINAL: hunter480

ORIGINAL: NEW61375

ORIGINAL: Robert Rowland

They could both be onto something. Maybe the rut trigger is a combination of photo cycle and moon phase. Ask any paramedic and he will tell you that the moon phase causes lots of things to happen.  Maybe the photo cycle sets the mood, and the moon pulls the trigger.


I tend to agree with this but my overall opinion on the topic is very similiar to CA except for the actual dates.

I believe photperiod in the fall along with the new moon of September(when it falls late like this year 9-29-2008) or the new moon in October(when it falls early like last year 10-11 2007), are the two thing that trigger a does 30 day estrous cycle and start ratcheting up bucks testosterone levels.

The thing that isn't convincing to me about the trigger just being photoperiod is how photoperiod actually takes place.  Yes the amount of light gets shorter but we are talking about a minute or two each day, to me that doesn't seem like much of a stimulous but I do fell it helps gets the deer started.  

This is the part where I tend to agree with CA about a more significant trigger being involved and he often mentions the second full moon or the "Rutting Moon" as some call it, I feel like the new moon has a bigger effect and hel eludes to something similiar in his studies regarding third quarter chnages in deer hormones.  Some new studies have shown that the amount of melatonin produced by the pineal gland can be cut by over 50% on bright nights(before, during, and after full moon) and even though photoperiod may have started estous cycles those bright nights around the rutting moon could cause a lull or slow the pace of the cycle a little imo until a little later in the month. 

Which brings us to the new moon which is two weeks later in the month,  I believe the second new moon and the days preceding and following it(about Oct 25-Oct 31 this year) serve as the kickstart to the real action.  These nights are very dark and cause spikes in melatonin output from the pineal glands in both bucks and does which I believe triggers higher testosterone level in bucks heightening their sexual aggression and triggers a does actual "heat cycle" which is the last 7 days of her full estrous cycle which is what I was talking about earlier being cued by photoperiod and the dark nights around Septembers new moon, Sept. 29.  Ive read that only the final 1 or 2 days of those last 7 days is when the doe is receptive to breeding.   

My predictions(jmo):

The actual breeding part of the rut will be about 7 days later than the time frame of Oct 24-Nov. 5 which is a few days before Octobers late new moon and a few days after. (So roughly Nov.1 -12)  <<<  Shocking I know.Image


Your hypothesis is very interesting, but lacks any real substance. A lot of "IMO", but not much else.

Interesting though, nonetheless.

 
Absolutely, it is just that, my opinion.  Granted I have plenty of real woods experience and have researched extensively the pineal gland(not just in deer) and how exactly it responds to light (sun & moon) as well as plentyof moon phase theories  And base on what I've seen and read I reached my opinion.  Which is precisely what the "experts" are giving us as well, their opinions.  I know where I hunt my dates fit last year much better than the ones predicted by D & DH so I'll try it again this season with my dates and see what the results are.

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