I guess I must have lost the 2011 D&DH calendar in the pile of mail. I was digging through, looking for bills to pay, and stumbled across it. I still didn't have time to look at it until after my second cup of coffee this morning.
Yikes!!! Did anyone catch that the prediction for 2011 is exactly the same as the 2010 calendar-- except "2010" is replaced with "2011?" If y'all noticed it, point me to the thread. I've been busy with my new job the past few weeks and have not been keeping up here as much as I would have like.
In fact 2011 is NOT going to be like 2010 or 2013 or 2005 as stated in the un-updated text. I think I have Charlie's schtick down, so allow me to give you the shamanic substitution:
The shaman says, that if you believe Charlie's predictions, you can expect a near-classic rut. The full moon after the Equinox will occur on the 27th of September, 5 days after the Autumnal Equinox. In November, the full moon occurs on November 10th. From there, the Chase Phase will build quickly with the peak of activity occuring on the 15th. Similar years to this are 2000, 1992, and 1973.
If you prefer Jake Meyer's methodology, you can peg the peak of the rut in November 2011 at about 10 AM on the 12th. This will be about the time the carcasses will start piling up outside Meyer's General Store in Lennoxburg. Kentucky due to it being the first morning of Kentucky's Rifle Opener. Jake bases his predictions on the fact that it is hard for a buck to be in rut when he's hanging off the meat pole.
But Shaman! What if I don't live anywhere near Lennoxburg, KY?
I don't want to go putting words into Jake's mouth, but if you look what Jake's saying, you can usually count on the action being hottest on the weekends closest to what Charlie's using to calculate his peak. Charlie looks at it from the front end of the system: the sun and the moon are the causitive factors here. Jake's looking at it from the back end of the system, the body count. On weekends, you usually have the most hunters out. The most bucks usually get whacked on the weekend. After they get whacked, they don't rut no more. If you have a big influx of hunters into an area, it will supress deer activity to some extent. Therefore, if something big like the Rifle Opener intervenes, the peak of the rut may not have as many players left to do the rutting.
What do I think? I think Charlie is right up to a point. However, I think the rut I experienced here in Kentucky was considerably different than what Charlie predicted. My observed activity came on well before it was expected and peaked well before the prediction. Of course, the 2010 pattern was well outside of the normal situation, so I don't want to throw stones at Charlie's predictions. If I remember correctly, the 2010 rut was a once-a-generation sort of thing.