The neighbor does not yet have the exchange rifle for the swap, are you set on the 30-30? If it was me, I have always wanted a lever action winchester 74. But with the guns you have listed, I would agree, the value doesn't matter as long as both parties are happy with the swap.
The only real difference between a good tracker and a bad tracker is observation. All the same data is present for both. The rest is understanding what you are seeing.