As a student of deer for going on six decades and a graduate wildlife biologist with a year or so of whitetail management under my belt, I might be able to shed some light on this subject. But first a word of warning. You may not like what I am going to say.
First, it is pretty much common knowledge that deer numbers fluctuate due to various factors. Among them are: Disease, hunter pressure, habitat changes and low fawn recruitment due to predation. So that is a given. Lets us first talk about disease, namely EHD.
EHD has been jokingly referred to by biologists as Mother Nature's cleaning tool. What is meant by that is that when there is an EHD outbreak, within five years, you have one of the healthiest deer herds around. EHD is a simple disease that is mostly prevalent in dry years when animals congregate at water holes. That is where the gnats also gather. It can be mild or disatrous. In almost any out break of size, carcasses are readily visble.
Hunter pressure should also be readily noticeable. If hunters are killing too many deer, you should know it. Obviously, on private land, this can be contained. BUT...before you start containing it, be sure of your herd numbers. DO NOT rely on hunter sightings, even your own. What you see is seldom what is really there. Cameras are almost as faulty at estimating population. One of the hardest things to get hunters to understand is the value of hard data, not "I am just not seeing...". Link to that, hunters are historically terrible wildlife managers. Depending on what your state allows, do some nocturnal surveys with thermal imaging if possible, surveying the same areas multiple times. That might give you a better idea of what you have.
Now let's talk about predation as it applies to a deer herd. Got lots of coyotes? If so, you might lose some fawns-probably about the same number you lose to mowing machines. Is that a serious facet for you? Only you know. I have a lot of coyotes and no problem with fawn recruitment. That may not be true for you.
Now...the biggie. How has the habitat near you changed? Has housing increased? Is land being cleared? In short, not just at your house or across the road at the neighbor's but over about a three square mile area, has there been a drastic change in habitat? If so, you may have found your culprit. You may need to reevaluate your carrying capacity. You may have exactly the number of deer you need.
Are you killing too many does? It is certainly possible depending on your state's policies. You may not believe it but where I live, the limit is three does per day for over 100 days. Noone comes even close. Quite often a liberal doe limit is not what it seems to be.Everything must be applied specifically to where you hunt, not on a state or national basis and here is why.
Deer cannot be micromanaged on a statewide basis. It is just too costly and no state has the manpower to do it. In some areas, there are too many deer. In some not enough. It is like a pan half full of BBs. Assume that is exactly the number of BBs you want in the pan. Now, tilt the pan. You still have exactly the right number of BBs but they are not evenly spread. That is what professional game biologists deal with on a regular basis.
I would venture to bet that within a year or so, your deer will "balance" out again. Ole Ma Nature is good at that.
I am now mostly retired, managing on one small piece of ground, less than 2,000 acres. Yet, I still face some of the same problems I had with a 20,000-acre place. If you really want to complicate things, try providing hunters with all five year old bucks and one behnd every tree.
I'm done now.