Woodswalker: I couldn't figure out how you were saying I was half-right. I think I get it. Your saying temperatures have nothing to do with the cycle that makes the leaves turn. I'm saying that the sugar maple and the box elder in my back yard used to be fully dropped before Halloween and now they are not turning until November. I'm not arguing with your causes. I'm just saying it does not fit my observation. The leaves are turning later and droping much later.
What it has done is sort of screwed up my deer hunting. For the first 15 years of my deer hunting I always enjoyed the clockwork precision of the maples-- especially the sugar maples. Opening Weekend of bow season in Ohio, the leaves where green. Second weekend they were starting to turn. Third weekend they starting to drop and they were down for Halloween. I have pics from Nov1 now of maples and the box elder with the leaves on both trees. Furthermore, I used to have the box elder dropping before the maples, so I had a great view of the maples. Now the elder leaves stay on and block the view of the sugar maple that is further away from the deck. If I had been bowhunting this year, the leaves would have been blocking my view clear into the beginning of the rut. Ten years ago, this didn't happen.
Another thing I notice: it used to be that the rule of thumb was that if you wanted to most efficient in your leaf raking, you touched nothing until November 1 and then you did it again on December 1. However, I picked up about half the volume I used to on November 1, and I'm waiting now until mid-December to pick up the last.
Also, coming from an old builder's family, we always knew to throw down the grass seed on Oct 1. Without straw or water, you could have grass growing by November 1. This comes from a time when the building trades in Cincinnati used to go dormant on Nov1 and not come back on line until March1. My family used to throw down the grass seed, pack up and drive to Florida and build through the winter down there. Nowadays, everything is pushed back. I have to throw down seed November 1. If I do it early, the seed germinates but it is starved for water and dies.
As to where I picked up the stuff on climate. Hmmmmm. I can name three sources:
2) The Farmers Almanac 2009-- a surprisingly good piece this year that a lot of people are quoting.
3) I was wracking my brain trying to remember this one: DrudgeReport.com
No, I'm not being funny. There have been several stories on Fox and Drudge in the past year where:
1) They found out the thermometers used for key climate data used to back claims of Global Warming had been improperly placed-- this was about a year ago. Somebody has been putting the little instrument houses too close to human habitation.
2) Way too many of the thermometers used for NASA's numbers are located inside urban areas. They weren't urban when the sites were selected, but they are now.
3) They had a huge boo-boo this year in Siberia-- September's Data was reported twice. Once as Sept. and once as October. NASA came out with big scare headlines==> Warmest October Ever!!! . It took a Global-Warming-is-Bogus watchdog group to find the redundancy and publicize it.
The cities are heating up. Another thing I'm noticing more and more: a LOT of rain heads towards Cincinnati, get to about the Indiana line and vanishes. You can see the rain on the radar just dissipate. Storms vanish, only to re-form just east of town in Clermont County. I have started to see articles on this, but I can't tell you where I saw the last one. I always thought it was something to do with the local TV stations' radar units being close to town. Then they put up the big NWS radar in Wilmington, and it became even more obvious. It used to be that if you saw a 20 mile thick band of thunderstorms heading for Cincinnati when you went to bed, you knew you were going to be awakened with a thunderstorm. Now, you're lucky to get rain on the north side of town. All the rain now dumps to the East and West of I-275.
By the way, I'm not trying to be an expert on any of this. I also can't take the rain to a certified check station and have it weighed and notorized, but I do have pics from the back porch on 11/1 showing the box elder and the maples just turned and still fully leafed. I just looked out now: the smaller maples still have their leaves on. I could send y'all a picture of that.