Rut Predictions

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JPH
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby JPH » Mon Nov 22, 2010 7:08 pm

ORIGINAL: SoIll Dawg

...there is no way a hunter can accurately say "the rut is on" after spending a couple of days in the field... 


Wow. And all this time I thought I was somewhat astute in my observations and in line with a vast number of game biologists! I guess those bucks fighting, chasing and bedding with does were just trying to throw me off. Oh well, live and learn.

SoIll Dawg
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby SoIll Dawg » Mon Nov 22, 2010 7:28 pm

ORIGINAL: JPH

ORIGINAL: SoIll Dawg

...there is no way a hunter can accurately say "the rut is on" after spending a couple of days in the field... 


Wow. And all this time I thought I was somewhat astute in my observations and in line with a vast number of game biologists! I guess those bucks fighting, chasing and bedding with does were just trying to throw me off. Oh well, live and learn.


Again, no offense intended, but personal observation is anecdotal at best particularly compared to the years of research on why the rut occurs.

Even my observations are only my opinion of deer movement and activity.  It just happens to be different EVERY year and follows the patterns set forth by CA.

As I said in another post, it is PERHAPS possible that the reason behind a hunter saying "the rut occurs around the 12th every year" is because the moon phase is typically full around this date.  The actual reasoning behind a consistent rut date is still based on a moon phase that occurs around the earlier part of the month than the later like this year.

After all, CA stated that seeking begins a week before the full moon and chasing the week to 10 days after.  So with such an extended period of increased activity, how often does it coincide with hunter's field activity of early November?

How often do we as hunters shrug off deer movement as "they just were not moving" when in fact there could easily be scientific facts to prove why activity would be at a lower level?

I have no idea if CA's predictions are true or further anecdotal evidence.  However, it is tough to argue with the facts as he presented them.

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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby SoIll Dawg » Mon Nov 22, 2010 7:48 pm

Full moon dates

2011 - November 10th
2012 - November 28th
2013 - November 17th
2014 - November 6th
2015 - November 25th
2016 - November 14th
2017 - November 4th
2018 - November 23rd
2019 - November 12th
2020 - November 8th

7 out of the next 10 years' full moon will have increased deer activity before the 20th and 6 out of 10 before the 15th!  This is, of course, according to the theory of moon phase being the trigger.

So is it more accurate to say "the rut is always from Nov xx thru Nov xx every year" (which is highly accurate at 70% of the time based off of CA's theory) or a roaming theory based off of moon phase?  See what I am (poorly) trying to say?

Of course what I failed to mention is if the actual second full moon after the fall equinox fall in October (which is certainly possible in 2012 - look at that date!!)  A late-late October full moon could also cause an increase in activity in early November.

Regardless, a person's theory of the rut occurring in early to mid November certainly is accurate enough most year's, but not necessarily based on a calendar date but moon phase.  At least, that is how I understood what CA said.

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JPH
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby JPH » Mon Nov 22, 2010 7:48 pm

I think you are playing fast and loose with the terms "science" and "fact", but whatever. I've got nothing riding on this one way or the other. My observations are no more valuable than anyone else's and CA's theory is no more scientific than Lenard Lee Rue's.

It is all educated guesswork.   

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shaman
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby shaman » Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:12 pm

ORIGINAL: JPH

ORIGINAL: SoIll Dawg

...there is no way a hunter can accurately say "the rut is on" after spending a couple of days in the field... 


Wow. And all this time I thought I was somewhat astute in my observations and in line with a vast number of game biologists! I guess those bucks fighting, chasing and bedding with does were just trying to throw me off. Oh well, live and learn.


Same here, JPH.  I guess our observations just ain't up to scratch or something.  Are you going to go tell them to strip us of our Pro-Staff credentials, or am I?  It's sad when grown men find out they're just jerkin' themselves around in the cold for nothing. I feel frankly ashamed that it took SoiledDog here to tell us.  We should have known this ourselves.

So SoiledDawg, exactly what constitutes a valid observation technique here?  I'm out there all year round.  I have a 200 acre farm.  I can usually walk out to the backyard and see deer. Please explain what it takes to take what I do and and crank it up to the next level. 
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SoIll Dawg
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby SoIll Dawg » Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:22 pm

I guess I should have known a casual conversation would come to this.  Name calling over rut predictions. [8|] Forums are often toxic and I should have stayed out of it.

Frankly, I would expect more from a person who has the Bible referenced in their tagline.  What a shame I even got involved.

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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby cdn1 » Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:03 pm

Hey Shaman to take it to the next level? you already know the answer......
You have to buy Charlie's calender [:D]

The rut seems kinda funny this year not alot of rut activity maybe there more to Charlie A's moon phaze than meets the eye only time will tell. The next few weeks should give us an idea if the theory holds water.

like most of us here personal observations tells me the rut usually follows the same time frame from year to year. I personally think it's length of daylight that dictates the timing.
Cdn1

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SwampLife
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby SwampLife » Mon Nov 22, 2010 11:07 pm

rut activity was not normal for where I hunt, it followed CA's predictions precisely and I have NOT been a moon guy.

Bucks were spotted breeding on the side of the road 1st couple days of nov. they were running everywhere is what we heard from everyone, we arrived on the 5th and saw tremendous buck movement the first two days, after that the lightswitch pretty much turned off and things got tough. This was the first year I can ever remember that I could not rattle or grunt up a buck blindly, not once, that is ridiculous where I hunt and Charlie plainly said bucks will be less responsive to calling the 4th-14th.

keep in mind that weather helped to hinder deer movement as well. I am outside the box so don't start with me. Just stating what I noticed in the most logical, un-biased way possible. next year I will try CA's advice and see how that works out, well, maybe.
No Shortcuts. No Excuses. No Regrets.

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Mac
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby Mac » Mon Nov 22, 2010 11:48 pm

We had an earlier than normal rut. Gun opener was on the 5th and we saw heavy rutting activity that day and I took my buck that day.

Our rut usually is closer to Thanksgiving.
What some of you other guys, that aren't seeing anything, maybe experiencing the lock down period. You won't see many deer during that time. They're in the bushes gettin' IT on!!! They're to busy to even eat.
Quote: "Real men hunt with fly swatters!" - me... lol

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doit
 
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RE: Rut Predictions

Postby doit » Tue Nov 23, 2010 2:31 am

Soill dawg,
Good for you that CA predictions are panning out for you. I personally don’t pay attention to CA predictions because I think its better to play it as I see it. I don’t think any one person can predict the rut for every area of our country but any experienced hunter who spends a reasonable amount of time in deer country all season can definitely call the phases happening in their own hunting areas. No one would know better the deer and their habits  than the experienced hunters that hunt them. And the guys on this board definitely can as so many others. Fact- you don't have an academic or professional title as a scientist to figure it out. you opened yourself up to take a polite lickin. Silly you for not expecting it.
 scientist- one engaging in a systematic activity to acquire knowledge. Arguably we all qualify.

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