SAK prelim report

[Fish]

Here's what all the hoopla was about.   This is 2009 SAK numbers, they are still prelim so they may change.   http://dmureview.editme.com/Topic-1233889196841    
 
I haven't reviewed them but here is what one person on the DMU board stated," [font=arial]A quick glance shows that there are now 26 units below goal and 11 units within goal or less than 10% above. As expected, the vast majority are Northern units (North of Hwy. 64) "[/font]
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[Wolf River Hunter]

Thanks for putting that up, I liked this post:
 
WayneNWTF says:

Thanks Ron This is great. This shows the North East forest are way below goal.  Just what those hunters have been saying the past couple of years.
 
 

[wack]

Am I  reading it right? Winnebago county is 21% over goal still? I don't believe that for 1 minute. I think the catch is habitat. They plant beans on public hunting grounds then harvest it here, cutting back on the habitat available so they can cut the number of deer down to nothing. Deer can't live on dirt.  The rest is wide open CRaP grass. It's going to take more than time to make public lands in Winnebago county to "recover". The real habitat has been missing for well over 100 years now.
   SAK report is more like sack of crap. There are very few deer on public grounds in Winnebago county and it's because the habitat is too poor to hold any deer year around. Deer would rather live in Oshkosh than try to survive on public DNR land over winter. 

[bullwinkle]

Wow, that map shows 2/3 of the state over goal.  Very hard to swallow.  I personally think the predators are increasing and the harder winters are having a larger toll that we have had before.  There will be some irate sportsmen if we have EAB all over the state again

[wack]

http://dmureview.editme.com/files/Topic ... minary.pdf

I don't buy this map for 1 second. There should be a lot more red and brown on the map than there is. I'm in zone 66 and it scares me to think this zone still has too many deer. The deer herd in my back yard was about 50 4 years ago, it's about 12 now. What zone are you in and how does it compare with the map?

[buckhunter21]

I'm in unit 59B in the west-central region, and in the same boat as you Wack.  I've said this numerous times...This is all ridiculous!  I know for a fact that if we are in EAB again next year there are going to be a loooooooot of PO'ed hunters that I know of in my area!!!!!!

[Osty]

I hunted in 62A, North of Stevens Point, for 5 days.  My Dad shot a doe on opening day.  Only deer that he or I had seen.  4 does and 1 buck were shot (that I know of) in about a 400 acre area on opening weekend.  Alot of deer for that neck of the woods so 2009 might be a little sparse.
 
I hunted in 63A, West of Hortonville, South of New London.  I shot a 4 pt on Thanksgiving night.  Only deer I had seen the whole season.  3 other nice bucks were shot on my in-laws farm.  I did see 2 deer on the edge of a field while I was driving.  A stand that is usually there was empty but about 100 yards away.
 
Whole season it was fairly quiet as far as shots are concerned.  2 hunters, 2 deer seen, 2 deer shot. 

[Fish]

OK, gang....I'm going to explain a bit about "goal" and SAK.  I'm trying to get a crash course in SAK so I can explain it at our WHU meetings.  I'll start another post to explain SAK later and more info will soon be on WHU.

The Buck Recovery Rate is the percentage of bucks harvested out the total buck death.  For instance, a 90% BRR means 90% of the bucks die from harvested and the remaining 10% die from other causes.  The BRR is set by biologist but no data is available to base this on.

First, don't "poo,poo" SAK.  SAK in it's pure form is one of the best models available.  The problem is the constant changes to the model done by the DNR AND some variables which lack scientific data.  Here is one major problem, the buck recovery rate.  There is more to it but I'll give this formula and follow up in a later thread.

In 1990, unit 70A had a BRR of 90%, buck harvest of 1888 and an Ave Yearling Buck Percent of 86%.  The annual mortality rate on an adult buck is calculated at BRR x AYBP or .90 x .86 = .77.  Take this mortality rate of .77 and divide the buck harvest of that year (1888/.77 = 2452).  2452 was the preseason est of bucks.  The total population is multipled by the amount of pre hunt bucks( the variable is called the Expansion Factor).  For this unit the EP was 4.9.  2452 x 4.9 = 12015 deer in that unit.

Now just think about the BRR for now, don't cloud your head with the other stuff.  Lets take a BRR of 80%.   BBR x AYBP(.80 x .86 = .602).  1888/.602 = 3136 and then multiple this by the EF of 4.9.  3136 x 4.9 indicates a total population of 15,367 in this unit.

Back when the used a pure SAK model, the BRR wasn't used and/or it was a constant.  Should some sort of BRR be used, maybe.   For more information on the problem of BRR please review the SAK report on the DNR website.  

[Fish]

The BRR is a variable which we think is being made up by the DNR.  If you look at the report, if your BRR rate has gone down from 2007, good luck!  The figures will show an increase in population and more than likely the DNR has picked you for a herd reduction and/or wants to fluff your unit.
 
It is important for the hunters of WI to support the general SAK model.  There are groups much more in tune to SAK and what's happening.  The SAK model just might help us correct our problem.  I'm not saying believe in the current SAK number but the system overall.  
 
The 2009 deer hunting season will be worse you'll ever remember.  It will be tough to support any type of herd estimation model.  Just remember, it's the variables placed into these equations by the DNR not the SAK.
 
Stay tuned, the next couple of months will be very interesting for the WI deer hunter.  Many of us have slowly forgotten about 2008, I'd suggest bringing it up in coversation to rekindle the memory.  We will all be called to action soon.
 
(Fish is really bitting his lip on this, can't wait til the gag order is lifted)

[Fish]

A few points on the subject of "At, above, or below" goal.  The goal is a figure made up on the social acceptible amount of deer per square mile.  It's is not the total amount of deer a unit can carry.  Usually this "goal" is set between 40-60% of the total amount of deer a unit can handle.  Socially acceptable is includes, biological concerns for the other resources on the land and unfortuanately, is generally linked to public land.  This socially acceptable population is pushed on the individual land owner.  For what reason; possibly lumber rights or limiting the interest in deer hunting.  That's a great question, really no scientific data has been given to support the biological impacts of deer.  Much has been studied throughout the country but no hard facts. 
 
So as a landowner/hunter, you have to decide what your "goal" is.  You want more deer, stop shooting doe.  But remember, eventually you must manage so there isn't an overpopulation.  1.5 anterless per buck shot.
 
The WI deer hunter needs to be educated in deer management, we are trying to do so.  Don't let the DNR dictate what you have to shoot.  I will give more info as I receive it.