Well I can't give a percentage of how likely it is that you will see him, but I certainly can tell you if you stay home.....ZERO!
It's November. Prime time. When you aren't sleeping or working, you need to be in the woods. That alone will increase your odds immensely!
They are, where they're at, when they're there. So you need to be where they may be, so that when they get there so are you!