Welcome Mike! You will find that we are quite an opinionated bunch around here! (except for me....[;)] )
As far as the Alsheimer theory goes for rut forecast...I believe it's a somewhat sound theory, but I have followed it in my area (northern and central Illinois), and it does NOT always hold true. I think that there are too many local variables (deer populations, feed sources, sex ratios, hunter pressure, etc.) to make it consistant. Besides, as with all the other "expert" theories that are written, as far as I know, DEER CAN'T READ....the dumb SOBS. [:D]
My own "theory", that has worked about as well as any other I've tried, is to be in the woods as much as possible from Halloween through Thanksgiving, regardless of weather.
Come early, stay late, bring your lunch!
Offer No Apologies.....
NRA Endowment Life Member