Let me tell a quick story about a neighbor to a property I used to manage. Let’s call him Fred.

Well, Fred bought a 20 with dreams of plastering his walls full of mounts. He worked in a larger city, but would spend most every weekend puttering around on his little oasis of tranquility, shaping and manipulating the place into exactly what he had envisioned.

I got to know “Fred” quite well and he is a great guy, but almost every season he would convince himself that there wasn’t a buck on his grounds worthy of hunting. They were all just too young and needed extra years or the rare mature bucks he’d get just didn’t seem to have much headgear.

Fred entered most seasons nearly as depressed as someone that had just lost their best friend in the world. His cams held nothing to be excited about and he’d barely hunt his 20, thinking that it didn’t make sense to pressure the deer off that he wanted another year on, when there was nothing there he wanted to hunt.

Here’s the rub. I managed a 3,200 acre chunk of prime grounds on the other side of his fence and it held truly great deer. I’d try to encourage him, but it never seemed to work. Frankly, he never had a clue what all would show up on his grounds, until he swapped chips during and after the rut, and he was sitting at home while most of it was happening every season.

In the real world, getting an accurate inventory on just 20, 40, 80 or even a 240 acre chunk is near impossible. What follows is why and how those hunting the real world that want an inventory can get closer.

Lessons From Tom

This actually starts with another story. Tom Indrebo is a truly world-class outfitter from Buffalo County, Wisconsin. His Bluff Country Outfitters operation was truly the cream of the crop, back in the 1990s and 2000s, bringing in everyone from Hall of Fame receiver Steve Largent to nearly every big name the hunting industry had back then.

For some reason that I am ridiculously thankful for to this day, Tom brought me on as a consultant, having me actually set up a decent handful of his hunting properties. The lessons I was able to learn from this revolutionary outfitter were near countless, as I still don’t know anyone that has dedicated more of their waking hours to nothing but developing a better understanding of deer than Tom. To say I was a sponge would be an understatement. To this day, Tom Indrebo, DDH’s own John J. Ozoga, and DDH contributor and “retired” biologist (despite still showing up to work each day) Keith McCaffery, have taught me more than everyone else combined about deer and deer hunting.

One of the best lessons Indrebo taught me applies 100% to this topic. Tom drove around 20-30% of Buffalo County most every single day, typically twice a day, looking for and studying deer. He eventually started taking a video cam and his three videos produced from those drives are some of the best to this day, with Monarch Valley still resonating with many.

I’ll never forget him telling me about a particular, 10-ish acre alfalfa field he observed, with a dozen good bucks out at once. Tom was leasing this property and had 6 of his own exceptionally reliable home brew cams covering the alfalfa. Having tested and used the cams, myself, I can tell you they were rock solid, yet he only got pictures of two of the dozen-ish mature bucks he video taped in that field!

Always remember trying to determine what’s really going on in the deer woods, exclusively with cam data, is like sitting on the couch at home, looking through a tiny crack in the curtain and believing you know what’s going on in the yard. You really have next to no clue, as you are merely seeing a sliver. As a cheesy example, when you see a cat dash by, followed closely by a dog, you’re likely going to assume the dog is chasing the cat, but you can’t see the raging inferno just a hundred yards away and closing fast. What you can’t see is often as or more important that what you can see through that crack!

Another huge lesson I picked from Tom was that mature bucks shift areas to get what they want and need, and those wants and needs change through the year. Sticking just to hunting seasons, the first shift occurs as the testosterone levels start really rising, making those previously more peacable bachelor groups get cranky to the point they break up, often sending all but one of those bucks to differing areas they can dominate or at least come closer than where they were. In the Midwest and points north, that very commonly occurs in mid-October, after most bow seasons have already started.

Then, the rut itself inspires bucks to increase both the time on their feet and the ground they cover. For as much as we talk about having no clue what could show up in the rut, I’ve found that the breeding phase is as predictable and patternable as any other phase, other than late summer and harsh winter feeding patterns. Sure, they can get tossed off their patterns, just like during any other time of year, but they know they want estrous does and they know exactly where the does typically are during every portion of the day on the grounds they know well. So, they tend to merely bounce between those doe concentrations during the high-odds times the does are there.

Still, a domino effect of estrous and near-estrous does can and do pull bucks off their patterns and into areas they typically aren’t. No, it doesn’t make a lick of sense to go to areas you don’t know to find does, when you already know where a true glut of does are and, due to being the breeding phase, odds are exceptionally good that one or more are ripe.

However, when he smells or sees something pretty and leaves the area he knows, of course he is going to follow. He’s found exactly what he is looking for and will likely track it to where ever it leads. So, he either scores or gives up, but this is peak breeding. It’s not uncommon to run into another pretty girl or a scent trail on the way home, which can lead him even further away. Stuff like that does play out and can deliver bucks from many miles away.

That said, my real world management experiences consistently shows I pick up way more rut roamers after breeding has wound down than I ever do during it’s ramping up or when most does are entering estrus. After breeding has tailed off is the time of season I’m picking up a bunch more bucks, on the truly large grounds I’ve managed.

I believe this increase of new, almost all mature bucks is due to experience. Mr. Big has ridden this rodeo circuit more than once before. He KNOWS there are still breeding ops to be had, but none of the doe concentrations in his area are offering any. So, he goes on a vision quest in search of just that.

Finally, in the Midwest and points north there is the shift based on winter weather. Food sources are now at a seasonal low point and Mr. Big has lost 25-30% body weight in the last just over a month, while running a negative energy balance on through until spring green up. This time of year, food is king!

Because the properties I manage are offering a surplus of nutrition, this is when I personally see the biggest shifts and pick up the most new bucks on a managed property.

Tom taught me all of that and then Ozoga and McCaffery’s research only backed it up, with my real world management experiences confirming it all.

There is one final lesson in this area that I picked up from Tom. Sure, those are the big reasons bucks shift, but they change their pattern for so many reasons that the only lock is that what he is doing today will change. It may be tomorrow, the day after or next week, but it’s pretty much a lock to happen.

There’s really two lessons in that. One, if a buck is cooperating and you want to tag it, jump hard, fast and smart, as that window will no doubt be closing. Next, there’s all sorts of reasons for those shifts. Food sources are changing dynamically. What had been awesome cover before leaf drop is often bare after. The previously peaceable deer woods, outside of bugs, is suddenly invaded by nature walkers, those making firewood, bird hunters, small game hunters and other deer hunters. That creates pockets of pressure and pockets without. The reasons are near endless, and the examples barely the tip of the iceberg. The changing habitat, habitat use by us, the deer’s physiological changes and changing weather make it so individual deer patters will change. It’s just a matter of when.

Add it all up and you can see the seeming impossibility of trying to nail an inventory for hunting season, even on 500 acres, much less a 240, 80, 40 or 20 acre piece. I hate to be blunt, but if you’re merely relying on your cams on that ground, you literally have no clue what new buck you can see on stand this AM or PM.

How to Make a List and Check it Twice

Now, one can make an effective argument that knowing the bucks in the area is irrelevant. For those that would find making a hit list to be a chore or don’t care, I agree emphatically! This is supposed to be fun and there is no legal or moral reason we have to know what’s out there to have fun or even tag a true slob. That’s an undeniable fact.

Flip side, some find building a database of what’s out there and even developing hit lists as rewarding as tagging the biggest buck around. Then, there’s everyone in between. It’s truly up to each of us to find the sweet spot in our passions. Assuming its legal and fits your morality, that’s 100% yours and only you can find the most joy in this for yourself, not anyone else.

For those wanting to create a database of what’s out there, it will only be as good as your data set. Hate to say it, but everything covered to this point screams you can’t get a solid data set from even 640 acres, much less the real world properties most hunt these day, which are way smaller than that.

In utopia, we’re all surrounded by outstanding neighbors that share our passions and are equal or greater in skill levels. Few of us live in utopia, but freely sharing intel with neighbors as eaten up by this as you is one way to increase the size and reliability of that data set. If one can get the neighbors to buy in, the entire area will have way better data on what’s out there.

As stated, we don’t all live in utopia. When that’s the case, trying to monitor a 2 mile radius around the grounds will help a ton. Sure, some of those bucks won’t ever step a cloven hoof on that ground and some from farther away may pop up. At the same time, there will be a bunch of bucks that you can’t observe.

Still, I’ve found that a few dawn and dusk drives a week can do true wonders for adding data. Of course, these are not random drives. They are targeting the area’s food sources that can be observed, in whatever sequence one finds strikes the best balance between sightings and resource usage.

Though one has it all in a utopia, the real world and life doesn’t typically allow for all that. So, one shares with the neighbors they can. At the same time, they may be able to throw the kids in the truck or grab a buddy and do a few cruises.

Remember, we’re merely gathering data. The more solid data we can get the better, but we’re next to never going to get it all. It’s aiming for the moon, but doing so just may get us to the clouds.

Moral of the Story

The real point of all of this, besides building a better understanding of when and why deer shift so much, is not to lose hope if you don’t have something exciting on cam. Not to be mean, but you really have no clue what could show up today, unless you actually control several miles of habitat and/or live in utopia where you and the area share freely and honestly with each other.

So, don’t allow yourself to be convinced, like my buddy Fred, that nothing’s out there too hunt, until he’s already been there and often is gone. Realize that shifts are occurring all through season, both for macro and micro reasons, and that our cams are just seeing a sliver of what’s happening out there.

When Mr. Big is giving you a window, jump hard, fast and smart, as it’s likely already closing. That said, when it seems like he’s not even out there, don’t you dare lose hope! You very well may meet him this PM or tomorrow morning.

Conclusion

Buck patterns and movement levels are changing dramatically over season. When one controls most real-world-sized grounds, even with intensive management, it’s often not possible to offer bucks everything they want and need for all season long, better than they can get anywhere else. Unless you can, it’s pretty much a lock that deer will be appearing and disappearing over season. Knowing that can be critical to keeping us in the game, when our current cam data and sits are telling us there’s not even a game to play!