This winter has been relatively mild across the United States, but if things don’t improve quickly, at least 10 counties in the Upper Great Lakes Region will begin losing white-tailed deer to winter kill.

Few states experience the harsh affects of winter like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan when it comes to deer loses via starvation. Thankfully, few areas are under alert for the 2022/2023 season, but northern areas of all three states are about to lose whitetails due to accumulating snow and below-zero temperatures.

Deer losses start happening when a region’s Winter Severity Index (WSI) exceeds 80. This occurs almost every year in some areas, but affects are usually limited. Losses mount when the index exceeds 100. 

As of this writing (Feb. 15), the following counties are in danger of exceeding the 80 threshold. Remember, March is the key month for whitetail survival. If the month includes lower-than-average temperatures (and little snow melt), losses will occur. Losses typically center on the young and the weak, but the young are most at risk (80% or more of losses are normally fawns from last year).

I would categorize 11 counties in the “warning” list:

1. Cook County, MN

2. Lake County, MN

3. St. Louis County, MN

4. Carlton County, MN

5. Pine County, MN

6. Burnett County, WI

7. Polk County, WI

8. Ashland County, WI

9. Lake of the Woods County, MN

10. Rosseau County, MN

Next up, I would classify the following six counties in the “watch” category:

11. Koochiching County, MN

12. Itasca County, MN

13. Aikin County, MN

14. Kittson County, MN

15. Marshall County, MN

Others to keep an eye on:

Other counties that could be affected include Polk County, MN, and tier of counties in Michigan’s U.P. that include Gogebic, Ontonagon, Iron, Marquette and Houghton.

Here’s a current look at the WSI for the areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin: